Investing

Gold vs stocks

Gold has a great PR team and a much messier track record than the marketing suggests. Sometimes it crushes everything. Sometimes it does nothing for twenty years.

Why people love gold

“It can’t be printed. It survives empires. It’s real.” All true. Gold is a useful allocation, especially when you’re worried about currency debasement or geopolitical chaos.

The pitch usually skips the awkward part: gold can sit dead-flat (or down) for entire decades.

The lost two decades, 1980–2000

Gold peaked above $850/oz in January 1980 during the inflation panic. It then bled out for twenty years, hitting $273/oz in 2000 — a 68% nominal loss, closer to 85% after inflation.

Anyone who bought the top in 1980 didn’t break even (in nominal dollars) until around 2008. In real purchasing power, they’re still waiting.

The 2011–2015 chop

More recently: gold peaked near $1,900/oz in 2011 as everyone braced for post-2008 money-printing inflation. By 2015 it was down to $1,060 — a 44% drawdown in four years. Try the 2011→2015 window in the widget below to see it.

19902025: gold lost to S&P 500 by $92,791 on a $10,000 investment.

Pick any window from 1990 to 2025 and a comparison asset.

GoldS&P 500
Gold
$114,663
+7.2% / yr
S&P 500
$207,455
+9.1% / yr

When gold makes sense

Gold is a hedge, not a growth engine. Small allocations (5–10% of a portfolio) earn their keep by smoothing returns and protecting against currency events — not by outpacing stocks over a working life.

If you want long-run growth, the math is in the compound interest calculator. If you want to understand why nobody got rich just holding cash, see cash vs inflation.